Trucking rates are climbing across the United States as available capacity tightens, but current freight data show the industry’s recovery is being driven by more than an increase in freight demand.
Bloomberg’s Odd Lots examined the changing market Thursday in an episode titled “Trucking Is Booming Again, And Drivers Aren’t Happy About It.” The program featured Reed Loustalot, chief marketing officer of Truck Parking Club, and discussed rising freight costs, tighter trucking capacity, driver dissatisfaction and regulatory changes affecting the industry.
Industry data support the argument that trucking rates have strengthened significantly.
U.S. Bank and DAT reported in June that dry-van spot rates increased 31.29% year over year in May, while contract rates increased about 9%.
Shipment volumes, however, moved in the opposite direction.
Spot volumes declined from approximately 1.36 million loads in March to 1.11 million in May. Contract volumes also fell, dropping approximately 13.3% during that period.
The combination of higher rates and lower shipment volumes points to tightening truck capacity as a major factor behind the increase in freight prices.
Cass Transportation Systems reached a similar conclusion in its May Truckload Linehaul Index. The index increased 6.9% compared with the previous year, with Cass citing constraints involving both equipment and drivers as significant contributors to higher rates.
Federal Enforcement Reduces Driver Pool
The number of drivers available to haul freight is also being affected by federal enforcement actions.
The Department of Transportation has increased enforcement of existing English-language proficiency requirements while tightening oversight of non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses.
According to federal figures reported by the Associated Press in July, approximately 26,000 commercial drivers had been removed from service for failing to demonstrate sufficient English proficiency. Another roughly 30,000 commercial licenses had been canceled after federal officials determined they had been improperly issued.
Federal regulators have also restricted eligibility for non-domiciled CDLs and increased scrutiny of how states issue those licenses.
Those actions represent a measurable reduction in the available commercial-driver population and could contribute to tighter capacity if freight demand remains stable or increases.
Supreme Court Ruling Could Change Carrier Vetting
Freight brokers are also adjusting to a significant Supreme Court decision involving carrier selection.
In Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II, decided May 14, the Supreme Court unanimously ruled that the Federal Aviation Administration Authorization Act does not preempt the negligent-hiring claim brought against the freight broker in the case.
The ruling allows certain state-law negligence claims involving a broker’s selection of a motor carrier to proceed.
The decision increases the potential legal exposure brokers face when selecting carriers and could lead some brokers to strengthen carrier-vetting requirements.
Whether those changes will significantly reduce the number of carriers able to obtain brokered freight remains uncertain.
Higher Rates Don’t Necessarily Mean Higher Driver Pay
The improving rate environment also doesn’t guarantee that company drivers will immediately see larger paychecks.
Driver compensation depends on factors including mileage rates, available miles, detention, company pay structures and the amount of freight assigned to individual drivers.
Owner-operators face a different calculation. Higher freight rates can improve revenue, but operating expenses including fuel, insurance, maintenance, equipment payments and tires continue to consume a substantial portion of gross revenue.
The current market therefore looks different from the freight surge experienced during the pandemic.
Freight volumes aren’t showing the same broad expansion, but the number of trucks and drivers available to move that freight has tightened.
If freight volumes begin climbing while capacity remains constrained, carriers could gain additional pricing power.
For now, the strongest evidence points to a trucking market being reshaped by tightening capacity and rising rates rather than a traditional freight boom.
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